My new job...

I have just took a new direction in my career path....

Retail consultancy.I join a company name RCMC....

We consult people on how suppose a mall is build and run.... and Wangsa Walk Mall is one of the mall that we consult...........(to be continue)

Final Show Down... What ending will this follow? Blame who?

Lately the market have much to talk about. With the US federal reserve cutting it interest rate to nearly 0%!!! Obama Financial Dream Team named... the market was in a good state for the last month or few weeks.

The sad thing is there is noting done to fix the core of this financial crisis. only thing the Bush administration did was to cut interest rate and try to ease the recession.

They are out of idea(they never have an idea actually), and they are desperate. That's undoubtly the last bullet US Federal Reserve fired(interest rate to 0%)...

So what's next?

Well it's new year soon. Usually at this time of the year the market will boost for many reason.

Retail always do well on this time of the year...

Also usually when a New President took over in US the market always boost(like what they say about the stock market will sure bull 6 months before presidential election...ha ha).

Well if you believe in thing like that the market will no doubt boost(in your dream i guess).

The truth is the problem is not solve never solve... and there is honestly no solution for it to be solve (at least with in the near future). No matter what the new Obama Dream Team do... it wont fix a thing.

The only problem(biggest) we are facingis the lost of confident of the investor in the current market. In the good name of any god you believe... believe this. Confident take times... to talk about how the whole system work... it might take me more than 100 pages to tell you all about that.

Blame the American banking system? Blame the American? Blame the investor them self? Blame the chinese government...?

Bottom line... stock market need at least 3-5 years just to get back into bull status. Enjoy.

Market Preview Report-8/7/2008(7.25am)

After Market- 07/07/2008

The Market Close 6 points lower than last Friday(now at 1127.26). However the FKLI futures are up 9 points(from 1110 to 1119). This had close down the gap between the Cash market and futures from 25 points to less than 10 points.

This happened because the futures market are expecting the cash market to go down even further. The oil price drop, the protest in KL was a peaceful one, and politic although had been quite interesting last week but what happened only weaken Our Former DPM Anwar Ibrahim and Current DPM Najib. In another words it actually strengthen our current PM's position in the nation(this should be good sign for the short term market out look).

Dow Jones futures was up 28 points when the KLCI close yesterday.
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Market Preview- 8/7/2008

Politic-
Malaysian politic had been a bit quiet for the last 2 days. I suppose this is a good news, how ever you should be careful as some of our politicians are always hunger for attention. They will sure to find a way to surprise you....

Regional Market-
Dow Jones was down 56 points. It was up over 110 points in the morning(US time), however it turn red after lunch to the lowest -168.(it was a little bit wild in the US market last night).

Crude Oil-
Crude Oil price is very low now, USD141.00 Per Barrel(compare to 146 the other day).

Todays market.

I am expecting Malaysian market to be weaken at the begining today and then rebound a little bit before or after lunch hour. However what happen after 3pm that's nothing yet i can say.

Advise; long at the begining and then sell at strength(for short term)
for long term investment you can try to sell when the market rebound(the market should stay bearish for the rest of the month)

Coming again soon...

had been bz with EURO 2008... and some traveling lately....

but i am back. will start updating the blog on daily basic very soon.(tomorrow.) thanks

Market Preview Report-03/06/2008

After Market(02/06/2008)


The market was down for 13 points closing at 1262.
Regional market was doing great , all was up except for Korea and Singapore that turn down at the late market.

Dow Jone was down for 134.50! And Most of the European Index turn 'red' yesterday as well.
Due to slide in banking industry again.

In US... Morgan Stanley, Merill Lynch, Wachovia... all contribute to the down turn as S&P cut their rate on these companies.

In Europe... HBOS, Bradford and Bingley... all turn bad as Bradford & Bingley Plc said it will raise capital, reviving concern credit losses are spreading.

--------------------------------

Market Preview(03/06/2008)


To bear?

1) Bad Regional Market...
US down... Almost all Europe down...

2) Palm Oil Likely to move side way or a little bit down turn...
(as technical and crude oil remain stable at 126-127 ISD per barrel)

3)

Weekly Report-

Sorry for not posting lately...
OSK Investment Bank(Alor Star) are now having a booth promotion at Star Parade(Pacific) until this coming Sunday. Account opening is free.

lately life hav been very busy...
so we will see... i will try my best to update everyone with the latest news.

Market Preview Report-28/5/2008(8.40am)

After Market (27/5/2008)

The Market was only up for 0.87 points yesterday althugh i was predicting a rise of about7-8 points that day. However the futures do come up a little bit(6points).

Dow Jones also rebound like what i had said earlier, DJ was up for 68.72 points this morning(Malaysia time)
--------------------------

Market preview...
today the market should be up again...cash should be closing at about 1275-1280.
while the futures should be closing at about 1273-1278.

Market Preview Report-27/5/2008(9.40am)

Sorry for the late update was having some problem with the PC justnow.

-----------
After Market report(26/5/2008):

The market end at 1273.37. Down only for a single point.
And the market confident continue to fall with futures drop for 9 points to 1261.
(like what was predicted earlier)
--------------

Market Preview(27/5/2008)

The market had reopen justnow in the morning currently at about 1275.
I predict the market will end at about 1278-1280.
While futures close at about 7-8 points discount from the Cash market.

*Tonight the Dow Jones and NYSE should also have a small rebound.

Actually the Malaysian Market's fundamental are quite strong and stable.
But not the politic... as long as the politician keep their mouth shut, we should have another one or two great week ahead of us.

Usually after a long weekend the US market will have a small rebound(not evertimes though, just more likely nia).
With Oil price staystable for the weekend and on monday, the US market should have a small rebound i predict.

----------------------
Oil price rise also mean CPO(Crude Palm Oil) rise!

Every body should understand that there're very high potential that the CPO will be use as a subtitube for crude oil. Oil now trade at 132.00USD. And the CPO Also rise to RM3700 per metric tonnes yesterday!

So the plantation counters like KLK, BKAWAN, IOI, SIME... Are likely to be a good counter to buy now.

Market Preview-26/5/2008(7.45am)

Reason for a Bearish market?:

1) Regional markets are not looking so good right now.
-today is a public Memorial Day in US and Spring Bank Day in UK. So both market wont betraded today. And that male a lot of people sell their stock b4 the weekend.
-Oil Price still remain quite high.
-The mining industry turn bad(Europe)
-The Consumer confident and property's value are relative low report say(US)

2)Technical Report
-Most technical report show that it is going to continue a slow downtrend today.

3)Local politic
-There's still not any good news that unify and strengthen the public and foreign investors.


-------------------------------------------

Reason to bull?

1) the suddenly down turn on Friday's trading
is mostly cost by people lack of confident on the market over the weekend.
however... nothing bad actually happened.
And in Economy nothing bad happened, means something good happen.
-------------------------------------------

Many speculate the market to continue a huge bearish market. But i think the market are likely to remain unchange while the futures are heading a little bit more bearish(cause the market's confident are very very low now.).

The fundamental of malaysia stock remain unchange actually. Only the external actor that cause all this.

Genting now trading at 5.95 should be a good stock to hold.
Apple-C1 trading at 3cent are also anothoer good choice(short term... should hit 4.5 cents in near futures!

After Market Report-25/5/2008(2.00pm)

Sorry for the late update... Was kind of busy last couple days.

--------------------------
22-5-2008 after market

haha... Very chun me!!! Both Cash market and Futures close at 1277 point that day.
--------------------------

23-5-2008 After Market

Early in the day the market was relatively good however
the market ended 1274.

While FKLI-May end at 1270.

Same old story on every friday... drop at the last hour. Cause the market confident is still very low.
---------------------------

On friday Us market go down even more.... -145.99! More bad news u bet.
---
like this first... update u more later.... a little bit tired now..

Market Report-22/5/2008(8.25am)

Yesterday

The Market close on 1281, while Futures close on 1287. With 6points premium? I dont know why, but it should be looking like that(in my oppinion).

While the local and global market both looking bad at the moment the Market's Futures should be at discount compare to KLCI. A simple fact that the market should not have enoough confindent to risk so much over the night specially those who long(buying a futures contract up).

I had all my client short(buying a futures contract down) it at 1286. So for now we only have to wait and see.

-----------------

Market preview

As i mention abovei am the Futures to turn discount some times later today, if not tomorrow. So i am expecting the futuresmarket to trade around 1277 at the moment.

------------------

Oil

Remain a huge influence on the market. The Oil price had now rise to 134.30! Opps...

look like most market is going to hit another low!

-------------------

Foreign Market

Dow Jones down 227

Nikkei down 230

Singapore not trading yet

all tyhe best to all trader out there

Market Preview Report-21/5/2008(8.25am)

Oil Price continue to rally to USD129.00!!!

This has hit the market everywhere. Because most of the company are likely to have a cut in their profit due to the rising price of the crude oil. Analyst are expecting the Oil Price to hit US 150.00 with in 6 months time.

Although many regard the economy will be at unstable state, but the truth about market is that the money wont go away. If you lose it, it will be a simple theory of someone else earn it. Same thing when u make profit.

So in the coming months, most of the company profit will be affected by the movement of the Oil price. However this also mean that energy, oil, plantation, nueclear, oil subtitube tech(like solar, wind...) and also plantations will be good choices to hold.

----------------------------

Yesterday the market was down 13 points to 1287. While Futures down to 1293.5(last review expect it move between 1290-1305). However with most people assume it was Dr. M influence that make a different there.

Well the truth is... that's is not the only reason. With all regional market go down, oil price hit record high (again) Dr M resign, and some bad news from some of the CI company. All contribute to the bear market.

Although so much bad news yesterday, the market remain quite strong actually down only 13 points, compare to 130 points down on the first business day after election.

------------------------------

So the market today will also turn bear(at least at the begining of the day, as Dow Jones and nikkei all are down right now. And also the oil price hit 129.00.

this might also contribute to a littlle growth for the CPO price.

----------------------------

GTG man take care

Market Preview Report-20/5/2008(8.25am)

Over the world gas prices are high, food's more expensive and the job market's cold, but are we going down to an even worst state of recession?

In my opinion NO, unless something huge hit it again. Especially in Malaysia. At least we saw it last week the market confident are starting to come back. And i believe the worst was over...

Cause now the truth that the normal public have no confident in the local economy and politic is not something new anymore. Even if Our PM Pak Lah resign or PKR leader Anwar take over as PM. This won't be something new to the public(although it would probably still the stock market temporary, but a permanent impact are very unlikely).

Dr M leave UMNO yesterday, is this something good or bad? That is not within my range. But i can tell you the impact it will bring to today's will not be as much as if he did it in 2007.

The market is very likely to move between 1290-1315 for the week. Not much change is expected(improve or worsen). Perhaps we are in a not bad state now.

Dow Jones Went up 41points on Monday, and currently in Japan Nikkei is down by 35points. So it will be a mixed on external influence.

-------------

Predicting the market is going to move at a very safe and careful speed(SLOW). So... we see.

After Market Report-16/5/2008(11.45pm)

This week the market was strong... but the Futures remain weak.
Because the market will be close on Monday(Wesak day), and this mean the risk that one take to long might be higher than usual.

Futures are at discount(lower than CI) before the weekend is very common specially when the economy(globally) isn't doing so well at all.

... busy weekend... will contineu to join u all later on. thanks

After Market Report-14/5/2008(11.45pm)

The cash Market was up by 1.2point.

Like i expect most counter in the CI wont be doing so good today including Genting, MAS, Gamuda, Telekom, and others. However i never predict that counters like IOI, Sime Darby, Tanjung(biggest stake in KLCI all Plantation), Kinstel, SSteel(contineu to rally on although some say thay are already overated).

LSteel rise from 0.70 to 0.96! this is a suprise actually no body wasexpecting that.

As i am writting now the US Dow Jones is Up by 120 pionts! Maybe my expectation for a small down fall for this week was a mistake.

However the futures market remain quite high today, ending at 1295. but one thing u must understand is that the volume and open interest is not very high now. So u can guess that the market confident is quite low actually. So we possibly either have a continuous small bull run or a huge bear run!

Market Preview Report-14/5/2008(8.25am)

Good Morning again Sunshine! Today(14/5/2008) we should be looking at small down fall of KLCI.

Reason to Bear:

1) Regional is preforming considerable bad this morning. (DJ down for 44 points, FTSE down for 6.8points, and Nikkei so far up only 1.88 point)

2) CPO just like i say earlier this week, will fall a little bit since monday Should continue on today as well.

3) Bad News like Scomi Marine, Genting, and others are likely to affect the market today as well.

(not much of good news that we have hear so far this morning... except for AMMB)

--------------------------

Reason to Bull.

1) so far not one(not one that is solid).

-----------------------------

OSK Investment Bank are going to issue AMMB-CW.

If interested Please give me a call for more detail.(04-7209833)

News from couple AM Bank's Employees(good friends) in KL HeadQuater say this will be a great opportunity. AM Bank compare to before this has a better management team(due to increase of foriegn country chare holder there and requesting for more proffesional team rather than race base management team that they used to have).

After Market Report: 13/5/2008(9.45pm)

Today the futures market move down to 1286.50 in the last couple minutes from 1294.00! it is amazing. i predicted it will go down todays and many of my clients follow my advise(although it went up until 1301.50 early in the morning).

The plantation counters was weak as the CPO go down almost RM 30.00 per Ton. Although the regional market were moving up today, locally the market wasnt looking so good.

--------------------
Genting trading at 6.15(should be a great stock to buy, for long term)
JAKS trading at 0.77(will be an acceptable choice if u are lookin for a shorterm investment, 1-2weeks)
Apple-C1 i recommend this one on the white board in my office while it was trading at 0.04, now it is trading at 0.06!!! we are looking at a possible 0.075 in this week if the US market is moving in the right direction!)
-------------------------
Citigroup-cw(12 months) is going to "release by OSK tomorrow morning!
this chould be a good call warren to watch!
If you believe the World,
and US economy is at a rebound state, then this will be at a great opportunity!!!
Louis suggestion= invest if u are able to hold it over 6 months or so!
(tips: buy after 2months! it should be at lower price!)

Report-13/5/2008

On Monday(12/5/2008), KLCI's move up about 12.5 points. As i say earlier the mining industry(specially Steel) was not going to gain a lot although the price was lift by the government yesterday. (Southern Steel Berhad, in particular has rise almost 60% since last week!!!, from RM2.26 to RM 3.30)

The mining and other counters were not doing any good at all(ofcourse not doing bad as well). However the CPO price was up more than 100 ringgit yesterday. So... the plantation counters actually was the one pushing the Whole Market on Monday.

I was a little bit underestimate the movement of the plantation counters.
------------

Another suprise will be GPLUS counter thatis also up over 70 cents to RM2.11 from RM1.36 in less than a week.
this counter was just out from being suspended the other day.(Crazy world)

Market Analyst: for up coming Monday!

Reason to Bull:
1) Technical Analyst(expecting a small bull market)
2) Expecting Steel making companies is going for another round of bull run, as Malaysia Government will lift the steel price on this Monday. Also the government is going to allow the steel company to export their products oversea.
3) CPO price rise had been pushing the plantation industry for the last week. looking at the chart Monday is likely to be another good day for the CPO market.


Reason to Bear:
1) Bad external, all Nikkei, Hang Seng, Strait Times, and Dow Jones is not looking good at the moment with all gone down on Friday.

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Extra:
1) The steel companies had gain a lot since last week, even before the news break up. Maybe the news was licked before it go to public. So if that's the case then the possibility of Steel maker to push the index up is unlikely to happened.

2)CPO although likely to move up on Monday(according to the chart). But analyst is predicting a down fall of the CPOby the end of the week.

Can you Make Money from FKLI?

As i say before, this is a fair market. So the answer is yes! But normally people will ask.... HOW?

The market is fair, so to be winner of the game you simply need be better in the game than the other 50% traders.

So to be the winner or not, the simple question is are you smart enough or not?

These are the basic important things that going to influence KLCI.

1) Foreign Market(Dow Jones, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Strait Times...)
2) Local Market(the 100 selected CI company's news)
3) Politic(national& also international)
4) Price movement of Crude Oil, Crude palm Oil, Metal, Gold and others.

So to be the winners in the game it is very important to

1) Have faster and more accurate news
2) Have better dealer(that place order faster, alert you faster and understand the market better)
3) Have enough financial support( have at least2-3k of extra money for each contract bought).
4) Have cool and clear mind while trading(emotional trading is very bad for you)

How to trade FKLI?

KLCI is made up from 100 selected company in Malaysia. And now the Index is traded at approximately 1285.00 points.

FKLI is the Future price of the KLCI at selected expired date(last business day of that month).

Each point of CI is worth RM50.00. So the theoretical price of FKLI is some where around RM64,500.00.

However each contract you buy only need RM6000.00. And you can choose to either buy it up(long) or buy it down(short).

This market is a little aggressive. But it is almost impossible to do insider trading as it accumulate a huge market. So it is a fair market.

What's FKLI....?

FLKI is simply the Futures of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index. Following is the link from Bursa Malaysia about some basic details about FKLI.

This is my first post, and i promise u every post that follow it will be almost this long. I hate long stupid no point essay and i believe most people are too. so let us keep it this way. thanks.

You read and understand, if not leave me a messege i will reply you as soon as possible. http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/products_and_services/derivative_resources/derivatives-klci-futures.html